Damien Cox knows his stuff

Cox recently put together one of his misery-pieces (isn't it great to know the hockey season is starting again?) centering on the Leafs, our man Vesa Toskala, and the axe collection he's been grinding all summer at home.

He makes some decent points, which can be argued to varying levels of success (McKichan had say in the Raycroft trade and obviously failed with Rayzor, and I hate to say it Leafs fans but Pogge not playing in the playoffs for the Marl was possibly to the benefit of the rest of the team).

He comes off as fairly factual and reasonable, which is of course why he has to take a parting shot that makes no sense and showcases his flair for spouting indecipherable gibberish.

"When Leaf camp opens, it will be with a team expecting to do worse featuring a goaltender expected to do even better.

Can't see how both can happen."

Oh really, Damien? Because I have two functioning eyes, and it only took me two minutes and a dozen or so mouseclicks for them to see goaltending numbers for the teams that finished worse in the standings than the Leafs last year.

Among starters:

Tampa Bay
Johan Holmqvist GAA: 3.01 Sv%: .890

Los Angeles
Jason Labarbera GAA: 3.00 Sv%: .910

Atlanta
Kari Lehtonen GAA: 2.90 Sv%: .916

St. Louis
Manny Legace GAA: 2.41 Sv%: .911

New York Islanders
Rick DiPietro GAA: 2.82 Sv%: .902

Columbus
Pascal Leclaire GAA: 2.25 Sv%: .919

Toronto
Vesa Toskala GAA: 2.74 Sv%: .904

So we can see that of the six teams who placed below the Leafs in the standings last year, four had starters with higher save percentages than Toskala, and two of those four also had a lower GAA.

Which is why it's simply impossible for Toskala's numbers to improve if the Leafs drop in the standings.

(1967)

I hate myself for this...

But I read an article on that site that caught my interest. Some may remember that I do not frequent said site as a matter of course, I just... stumbled upon it while... on HFboards looking for the breakdown of the Leafs rookie tournament. Good lord that was painful.

It looks like the final nail is being driven into the coffin of any respectability the so-called "Muskoka Five" could have claimed. Mats is reneging on his stated wish to be with a team through camp to the finals, McCabe eventually accepted a trade to a destination few (like me) thought likely after years of assertions of loyalty to Toronto, and now the worst one of all:

"I love to play for the Leafs, and I hope to play another year in Toronto. If not, I'll move on. But, I'm ready to play here and we'll see what happens." - Tomas Kaberle

Now Tomas, why do you just hope to play another year? You're just as in control of your destiny this season as you were last, when you blocked a trade that would have netted us a young top six forward and a top 20 draft pick. You were adamant about being a Leaf then, what's changed?

Oh. Your friends aren't around.

Could it be that the leadership core of the Leafs, the one adamant about winning a championship in Toronto, that believed in their group, was just a bunch of chums looking to have a good time on our dollars? There's evidence out there, and I hate that with every interview our former veteran core is proving the cliche thrown around by the TSM.

say it ain't so, Kabby

It's easier to see someone like McCabe move on once the atmosphere's gone, he was an import that had been shuffled around a few teams in the league before finding a partner in Kaberle along the blueline. Kaberle is a life-Leafer, a rare draft pick that's stuck with the club the whole of his career, who we might hope would retire a Leaf. To think that he torpedoed what would have been a key part of our rebuild not because he was loyal to the Leafs, but because he was loyal to his buddies, is sad in a lot of ways for a Leaf fan.

The worst part is that it's Kaberle who's the latest vet to waffle on his motivations for staying with the team now that it's not as easy in the dressing room. The one guy that none of us questioned for his performance or his contract, and the only one of the five to come through our system. You're a Maple Leaf Tomas, not a Sundin's Heroes Leaf, your jersey doesn't have a patch on it's shoulder that reads "Caber + Kabby + Tucks = BFF" on it (I hope). You've already made a stand that you want to remain a Leaf, so stick by it else you become another pariah of the dark period this club is going through.

Maybe we need to go over some terminology here...

eat it, Massholes

In this well-quoted article by the Globe and Mail we see a picture that doesn't look too bright for the Leafs' future. Young kids are having a hard time getting into the game, fan numbers in polls are down, and they're looking to a franchise like Chicago for tips on how to get their populace excited again (having two break-out young draft picks the same year your team gets televised locally for the first time sounds like a strategy MLSE will have difficulty duplicating).

But let's go over a few things here:


"He revealed the club's market research indicated that in 2007-08, only 51 per cent of the people surveyed considered themselves die-hard Leafs fans, down from 68 per cent the previous year."

Now, I looked up the definition of "diehard" for an example, let's try two:

From Miriam Webster Online: strongly or fanatically determined or devoted <die–hard fans>

From Answers.com: Stubbornly resisting change or clinging to a seemingly hopeless or outdated cause.

Oh, look at that. I guess the 17% of the Leafs populace that removed themselves from the die-hard category after three years of non-success were right to do so, as they were full of shit to begin with.

Now, I know what MLSE is getting at here, fans are becoming disenfranchised by the woes of the team. But let's set things straight, the populace they're losing aren't the same people who shell out big bucks to buy scalped tickets to a Leafs/Habs showdown. They aren't the people with a Leaf license plate and flags on their car. They aren't the people who still own Leafs bedsheets and wear their Salming jersey while watching taped playoff games from '93 late at night. They're the "fans" that don't know shit about hockey, or the Leafs, who "cheer" for them occasionally in order to fit in at parties and cause a ruckus at bars.

So the crux of the matter is this; how much of does it actually matter if the Leafs are losing bandwagon fans? Should they do anything to remedy that?

For fans like most of the Barilkosphere, the consequences of losing touch with this customer base are twofold; firstly it means that fewer people will be snapping up those corporate platinum seats, secondly it means that there are going to be more people yelling "Leafs suck Ottawa/Montreal/Calgary rules!" out of cars as we walk past in our jerseys.

For MLSE the case is different. These are bandwagon fans, to get them back the Leafs need to be successful, so really any initiative the Leafs are trying to make to hook these people in during rebuild years is wasted effort. But the real meat of the article is the waning numbers of GTA area residents that are actually getting into the game at a young age, something that is very crucial that the organization address. Toronto is an expensive area to live in, and GTA hockey is expensive as all hell (a few grand if you want your kids in AA or AAA, not to mention the usual expenses of equipment and travel). If this is truly Canada's sport then not just MLSE needs to realise that hockey needs to be supported in order to give the (relative) poor or newly immigrated inroads into building up a community, as well as physical and personal skills. It's too easy to take for granted the fact that we live in Canada, or Toronto, and that hockey is ubiquitous.

Florida: 1 Maple Leafs: 3

Is just about how I tally this year's transactions between the two teams. The point Florida gained? The Bryan McCabe trade of course.

his last effort as a Maple Leaf was making Florida look good in
a trade, which would be fitting if it wasn't so damn depressing.

So what's the score breakdown? Well I'd put it at:

Kilger/ 3rd Round Pick: Advantage Leafs
Belak/ 5th Round Pick: Advantage Leafs
Bryan McCabe + 4th Round Pick/ Mike Van Ryn: Advantage Panthers
Bryan McCabe + 4th Round Pick/ Mike Van Ryn: Advantage Leafs

Why would I ever think getting rid of a draft pick is a good idea for a rebuilding team, and why does Florida even benefit from picking up our garbage? Well...


Florida Gains:
Bryan McCabe, a guy I believe still has some offense left in him and an NHL veteran used to eating up minutes. If Bouwmeester can cover up for him in his own end the way Kaberle used to then Florida's on it's way to a decent top pair and a capable offense that doesn't need to play Jokinen on the point on the power play any more.

McCabe also has some built up chemistry in the locker room with buddy and over all good guy Wade Belak, and potentially Chad Kilger should he ever return from the wilderness. Plus, though Martin may come to regret this, there's stability built into McCabe's deal. McCabe is likely loathe to want to move again, and has family in Florida to root him there as well as a friend. Martin was also probably the only GM in the NHL who even considered trading for the guy. Martin has a top-pairing defenseman for the next 3 years, regardless of how the Panthers fare in the standings.

They also got a fourth round pick in 2010 from the Leafs, which is pure gold.

Panthers Lose:
Van Ryn, a guy with potential to be a steady 40 point dman whose career has been set back by injury and circumstance. Really the Panthers aren't hurting for depth on the defensive end after the Jokinen trade, so losing Van Ryn and gaining McCabe is still likely a move up in skill level without the team regressing in other areas.


Leafs Gain:
Van Ryn, a potential 40 point dman who will probably play better defense with no wrists than McCabe ever did. With Van Ryn we get insurance heading out of camp if Cola is injured or if Frogren or Stralman don't progress to the NHL level like we might hope. Also Ian White sucks, and he better be our 7th or in the Marlies next season. If Van Ryn does well enough throughout the season then we have the depth to finally be a seller at the trade deadline, which will hopefully at least yield us back that 4th rounder.

Leafs Lose:
Bryan McCabe. And let me be the 4,000th to say, Thank the Lord. In McCabe we lose a 1st pairing power play defenseman on a team that already has one (Kubina) younger, cheaper, more physical, and on the upswing in terms of his point curve. Regardless of how we felt about Bryan's play, he was one-dimensional, redundant and old on a team that needs youth and an emphasis on defensive responsibility.

A 4th round draft selection in 2010. Unfortunately GMs knew the kind of situation the Leafs were in with McCabe and so weren't willing to simply take the guy off our hands. A fourth rounder is hopefully something we can recoup later on with a trade of one of our defensive depth players.

At the end of the day the Leafs were never going to add anybody significant to their roster for McCabe, he's old, coming off a very poor year in terms of production. Plus Toronto might as well have tarred him and feathered him with a big sign on his back that read "Honk if you love blowing games in overtime" for emphasis. Which, to most of us, is pretty awesome.

The advantage the Leafs gain is not by adding Van Ryn, but in what is left in McCabe's absence. The Leafs gain about 2mil in cap room next year, and more over the next 2 if Van Ryn leaves later on. 2-5 million might not seem large in today's NHL but it gives us room to hold onto our core guys once they hit contract years a little down the stretch. It also frees up 20 minutes a night on our blue line, to be distributed however way Ron Wilson sees fit, but ultimately frees up space over the next 3 years for guys like Stralman, Schenn, and Vorobiev should he ever fly over.

That 4th round pick we lost with McCabe gives us more time and space to sign and play the guys that were identified as people we want to keep within the organization, and so in my mind is worth the expense. Much more so than, say, a 5th for Ryan Hollweg to dance around in our locker room.

Also, DGB over on his great Leafs blog started up a pretty good discussion about McCabe's priorities and commitment to winning when the details of McCabe's decision came to light. Some great comments there, just adding my two cents: McCabe's priorities aren't out of whack as a person or even an employee, everyone works in order to better suit themselves and their families. However, when it boils down to it, McCabe's obligation as an athlete to this team and this city was to compete and play with desire every game, regardless of the state of his personal life. If he'd simply performed instead of getting comfortable with mediocrity then he never would have had to move his family in the first place. McCabe has every right to look out for his family, we as fans have every right to feel frustrated over his attitude to his commitments.

Chances getting smaller?

it's a fact, if Kyle Wellwood burps on the ice, Nik Antropov is too high up to hear him

The Forechecker, a great hockey statistics blog, recently put up an article detailing size and weight of all 30 teams in the NHL. As you can see, the Leafs come up slightly below the league average, in 18th place. This is only slightly surprising to me, we actually shed some small guys in Tucker and Wellwood, and only really lost size in Gill when it boiled down to transactions. It also helps that waaay back in 07 when the Leafs were making another ill-fated playoff push it was the "Big Three" of Poni, Sundin, and Antro that I heard Philly's announcers talking about in a game, to them back then we were a big team that used it's size. Looking over our dudes though, most top out at 6' even, and guys like Stajan, Steen, Moore, Devereaux, Tlusty, Stralman, and Williams are pretty darned shrimpy.

Is this a big deal? I mean, the Sharks and Sens top the list and both appear to be dominant teams (in the regular season), but both perennial contenders Dallas and Detroit actually reach out at the bottom of the list. Dallas even played a fairly physical playoffs this past season, so it would appear that size isn't necessarily a determining factor when it comes down to team competitiveness and play style.

So why talk about something that apparently doesn't matter? Because Cliff Fletcher seems to think it does.

The Leafs selected eight players at this last draft, Fletcher's first in a while. Not one of them topped out below 6'2". Weight doesn't really apply to 18 year olds, but they project to be a pretty massive group of guys. Both Damien Cox and the boys at Hockey's Future seem skeptical of the actual talent level of the group, while Steve at another great hockey analysis blog begs to differ. The two big names past Schenn are Hayes and Stefanovich, both of whom definitely have first round skill levels, but both have question marks that are hard to argue with surrounding their consistency and work ethic in regards to their careers.

Were Fletcher's draft day decisions based on figures that appear to be meaningless? Or did he just pick the best guys that seemed available, and by coincidence they all bang their heads on the way out of their limos? I'm really interested to see how the big guys work out. The franchise already has a past neglecting small players, we will never hear the end of the Steve Sullivan catcalls.

I hate you, Bryan McCabe

pictured here: Paragons of uselessness

Though this time it isn't because your idea of taking the man is poking at him with your stick from behind the goal line when he has an open net. It's not because you're a whiner, or a connoisseur of apologetic excuse making. It's not because of your stupid facial hair or shit-eating grin.

I hate you today because you're making me a liar.

I knew that, if I said you weren't moving long enough, you'd see your way out to spite me. Now that your stance is weakened, the end result is inevitable. You're like some poor unsuspecting victim at a bar, someone asks you to go grab a slice of pizza and after a while you go "Well, I suppose I am a little peckish" and then before you know it you wake up in some hellhole in Connecticut surrounded by Darcy Tucker jerseys. Your plane ticket's already been paid for, first class, because we like to treat our guys right while threatening to not play them.

I think the better question now is, who the hell even wants him?

mf37's Toronto Maple Leafs blog had an excellent piece covering the issue a few weeks ago, the market has changed a little bit since then so let's take a look:

The Variables

Location: McCabe still gets to choose where he goes, and then it all comes down to whether or not those specific teams are interested. Garth Snow is, for the first time in his life, playing hardball with the Leafs over the McCabe issue. Good for him, but like a retarded stepchild he's picking the exact wrong time to try out this exciting new concept. This is a team that had Bryan Berard and Marc-Andre Bergeron as it's first power play unit. Mark Streit's only one half of a pair, and well, we'll see how much of his production was a product of Montreal's system, as Souray didn't do so well his first year out.

I'm going to assume McCabe is not a total asshat (a stretch, I know) and say that family is very important to him, and that he'll want to stay close to New York or southern Ontario.


Cap room: Now, Fletcher's already gone on record saying we may have to take some salary back, this isn't a salary dump as the market probably won't allow that. This actually supposedly gives us a wider range of teams, as individual cap space isn't an issue.

Need: Free agent frenzy's over, and a lot of teams have addressed their needs on D. While the Boyle trade let us know that it's entirely possible to sign a contract with a no-trade and get traded immediately, not all teams are undergoing an ownership change.


That makes our potentials: New York Islanders, Buffalo Sabres, New Jersey Devils, New York Rangers, Ottawa Senators. Not too different from mf37's list, it's true. I didn't include Atlanta because, well, Georgia's a lot closer to Florida than it is to Rhode Island or the GTA, and if we include them we might as well include Tampa and Florida*.

The Islanders signed Streit, but still have loads of space and the need for a power play defensemen. The question is whether Wang will allow his team to spend higher, and if Snow will soften on his demands for a 1st rounder. I kind of doubt that either is likely knowing the Islanders.

The Sabres need a good powerplay dman and have the cap room to make anything possible. However, just re-signing Numminen fills up their roster slots and with guys like Sekera, Weber, and Gragnani looking to crack the line-up I think we'd have to take at least one bad dman back in order to make any trade remotely possible.

New Jersey's interesting, losing Rafalski hurt them a great deal, but they're right up against the cap. Their d-corps is modest, but their forward core is actually fairly expensive, with 8 guys out of 12 being paid at least $2.5 mil. With some of those guys being 35 year old John Madden, and 37 year old Bobby Holik, I can see some moves being made to allow a guy like Bryan in. Whether or not they want him at all is a better question.

The Rangers are out of the picture with the Redden signing and the amount of money they've invested in their vets; I can't conceive of a deal that would work and they have a solid enough core.

Ottawa's another interesting choice, they have space to do whatever they want and just lost Redden, but guys like Meszaros and Lee are supposed to be stepping up. I think the biggest impediment to this deal is the fact that I can't understand why a team that saw 8 games of Bryan McCabe last year would want him.

Oh Fuck We're Probably Keeping Him Anyway Aren't We

The Islanders are going to remain the front-runners in this discussion, the circumstances are too perfect for them not to. Looking up and down a list I can see Buffalo, Ottawa, or Jersey also receiving some consideration, though the deal would likely be epic.

I'd say the market for a $5mil broken, old defenseman whose peak was two years ago is pretty slim, especially when he gets to choose the region his team would be in. I'm still optimistic that the deal will work itself out by the start of the season, but this list exercise was depressing in it's limitations. Just stop being a dick, Garth Snow.



*rumours of a McCabe to Florida trade have gone around despite being tremendously dumb. With Bouwmeester likely to leave Florida will need a good point shot, but the location works against this. With Belak McCabe's at least got someone to talk to, but I'm putting this into the 'no' category until McCabe proves me wrong again and accepts a trade to Los Angeles.

Just when you've lost faith in the general public...

Some guy named GuelphGuy posts in the comments section of theStar on this article and totally redeems the lot of them.

"How many articles can you print about absolutely nothing? Please just stop, and give us the news when there IS news."

Beautiful.

Straight to the point, being critical of the media that's manufactured it's own monster in regards to this Sundin story. Let's be honest here, nobody's talking about Joe Sakic, nobody's talking about Teemu Selanne, because most legitimate media have the sense to know that it's a dead story. The player will make a decision or they won't, and when they do it won't be in secret, it won't be something that needs revealing.

What's been pissing me off is the amount of aggrandizement that Mats has been getting over this bullshit press.

People are pissed off because they see articles being printed every other day that don't say anything, even from decent sources. Rather than blame the piss-poor decision making of these establishments, they're blaming Mats for taking his time on a very personal decision here. This is one case where you really should be shooting the messenger, for instead of delivering a message you don't like he's stopping by your house and talking about the fit of his codpiece while delivering the same expired coupons you've been getting for weeks.

The media is pissed off because they've been following this story so closely, devoted so much time to what anybody could have told them was a loser's proposition, that they're lashing out at him and questioning the heart and work ethic of a guy who could come to their house and take it apart brick by brick with a hockey stick and some herring. I love the idea that people who can't even find a real story to print and who turn on their subjects and audience so quickly are questioning anybody's work ethic or heart.

So enough. The media seems to think that Mats is entitled to come back and give them a huge story for all the time they've spent on him. The public seems to think that Mats isn't entitled to do whatever he wants, when he wants. Unfortunately, Mats doesn't take shit from anyone, and if his long decision making process is pissing people off then I'm glad, I hope they stew for at least another week.